Impact of new technologies by 2030

Impact of new technologies by 2030

According to the 2012 report Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds published by the US National Intelligence Council, four areas of technology will shape global economic, social and military developments through 2030. They are information technologies, automation and manufacturing technologies, resource technologies and health technologies.

Information technologies

Three IT-focused technological developments have the potential to transform the way we live, do business and protect ourselves ahead of 2030.

1. Solutions for storing and processing large amounts of data, including “big data,” will provide governments and commercial organizations with greater opportunities to “know” their customers better. The technology is there, but customers can opt out of the collection of so much data. In any case, these solutions are likely to herald an impending economic boom in North America.

2. Social networking technologies help individual users form online social networks with other users. They are becoming part of the fabric of online existence as leading services integrate social features into everything else a person might do online. Social networks enable useful and dangerous communication across diverse user groups and geopolitical borders.

3. Smart cities are urban environments that use information technology-based solutions to maximize citizens' economic productivity and quality of life while minimizing resource consumption and environmental degradation.

Automation and manufacturing technologies

With the globalization of manufacturing over the last two decades, a global ecosystem of manufacturers, suppliers and logistics companies has emerged. New manufacturing and automation technologies have the potential to transform work patterns in both developed and developing countries.

1. Robotics are now used in a range of civil and military applications. Over 1.2 million industrial robots are already in daily use worldwide and there are increasing applications for non-industrial robots. The U.S. military has thousands of robots on battlefields, home robots vacuum houses and mow lawns, and hospital robots patrol corridors and distribute supplies. Their use will increase in the coming years, and with improved cognitive capabilities, robotics could significantly disrupt the current global supply chain system and the traditional distribution of labor along supply chains.

2. 3D printing technologies (additive manufacturing) allow a machine to build an object by adding one layer of material at a time. 3D printing is already being used to create plastic models in industries such as consumer goods, automotive and aerospace. By 2030, 3D printing could replace some conventional mass production, especially for small production runs or when mass customization is a high priority.

3. Autonomous vehicles are now mainly used in the military and for special tasks, for example in mining. By 2030, autonomous vehicles could transform military operations, conflict resolution, transportation and geoprospecting, while posing novel security risks that could be difficult to manage. At the consumer level, Google has been testing aDriverlessDare.

Resource technologies

Technological advances will be required to meet the increasing demand for resources due to global population growth and economic progress in today's underdeveloped countries. Such advances can impact the food-water-energy nexus by improving agricultural productivity through a wide range of technologies, including precision agriculture and genetically modified crops for food and fuel. New resource technologies can also improve water management through desalination and irrigation efficiency; and increase the availability of energy through improved oil and gas production and alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power and biofuels. Widespread communications technologies will make the potential environmental, climate, and health impacts of these technologies known to an increasingly educated population.

Health technologies

Two groups of health technologies are highlighted below.

1. Disease management will become more effective, personalized and cost-effective through new enabling technologies such as diagnostic and pathogen detection devices. For example, molecular diagnostic devices will provide rapid means of testing for both genetic and pathogenic diseases during surgery. Readily available genetic testing speeds disease diagnosis and helps physicians decide on the optimal treatment for each patient. Advances in regenerative medicine will almost certainly parallel these developments in diagnostic and treatment protocols. Replacement organs such as kidneys and livers could be developed by 2030. These new disease treatment technologies will increase the longevity and quality of life of the world's aging population.

2. Human augmentation technologies, ranging from implants and prosthetics and powered exoskeletons to brain enhancements, could enable civilians and militaries to work more effectively in environments that were previously inaccessible. Older people can benefit from powered exoskeletons that assist wearers with simple walking and lifting activities, improving the health and quality of life of the aging population. Advances in human augmentation technologies are likely to face moral and ethical challenges.

Conclusion

The US National Intelligence Council report claims that “a shift in technological emphasis from West to East, which has already begun, will almost certainly continue as companies, ideas, entrepreneurs and capital flow from the developed world to developing markets grow.” I am not convinced that this shift is “almost certain” to happen. While the East, particularly Asia, is likely to see the majority of technological applications, current innovation is primarily taking place in the West. And I don't think it's certain that the focus of technological innovation will shift east.