Over 39 million people will die from antibiotic -resistant infections between now and 2050, according to a comprehensive global analysis of antimicrobial resistance.

The report, published on September 16 in The Lancet 1 In 2021, more than a million people died of medication -resistant infections annually, and this number could increase to almost 2 million by 2050. Around 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050 could be saved by wider access to suitable antibiotics and better treatment of infections, the report estimates.

"This is an important contribution to understanding how we got where we are, and to give a rational expectation of future burden by [resistance] to inform the next steps that can be undertaken," says Joseph Lewnard, epidemiologist at the University of California, Berkeley.

“I think that the loads are probably much higher than was reported here", especially in countries where there are data gaps, says Timothy Walsh, microbiologist at the University of Oxford, UK. The numbers indicate that the world does not achieve the goal of the United Nations to reduce mortality caused by antimicrobial resistance by 2030.

growing deaths

Districts and hospital files from 204 countries between 1990 and 2021 analyzed

and focused on 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of bacteria and antibiotics against which they are resistant, as well as 11 diseases, including blood infections and meningitis.

The results show that the number of children under 5 years of dying from medication -resistant infections has dropped by more than 50 % in the past 30 years, while the death rate has increased by 80 % in humans (see "resistance crisis").

Deaths caused by infections with staphylococcus aureus - infected the skin, blood and internal organs - recorded the greatest increase and climbed 90.29 %.

resistance crisis shows that antimicrobial resistance could be responsible for 1.91 million deaths per year.

Many of the most fatal infections between 1990 and 2021 were caused by a group of bacteria that are particularly severe medication resistant, the so -called gram -negative bacteria. This category includes Escherichia coli and acinetobacter baumannii - a pathogen that is connected to infections acquired in hospital.

gram-negative bacteria are resistant to carbapenem antibiotics, a class of antibiotics that are used to treat serious infections, and they can exchange antibiotic resistance genes with other species and pass them on. The deaths associated with carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria rose from 50,900 cases in 1990 to 127,000 cases in 2021.

The report estimates that by 2050 the antimicrobial resistance could cause 1.91 million deaths every year and a total of 8.22 million people will die from resistance associated with resistance. More than 65 % of the Deaths attributed to AMR will occur in people over 70 years.

"This study shows that we have a problem in the quality of the health system and the prevention of infection," says Mohutor Mohsen Naghavi, doctor and epidemiologist at the University of Washington in Seattle.

targeted interventions

regions with the highest predicted death rates are South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. The researchers emphasize that strategies to combat drug resistance must be prioritized in low -income and income mediators.

"We need more global investments and much more real interactive cooperation with low -income countries to ensure that they are well equipped," says Walsh. Strategies must ensure that hospitals in low -income countries have access to diagnostic tools, antibiotics, clean water and sanitary facilities.

"Most of these deaths actually do not require new or special interventions to be prevented. This is an important message that they convey," says Lewnard.

legislators should also address the excessive use of antibiotics in agriculture that accelerates bacterial resistance and invest in the research of innovative antibiotics, according to Walsh.

The authors hope that the report "will provide information about how new medication can be developed, which new drugs the focus should be on and which new vaccines should be taken into account," says co -author Eve Wool, research manager for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, Washington.