The 15 degree goal: an achievable goal?

The 15 degree goal: an achievable goal?

The 15 degree target is an ambitious push to limit global warming to 15 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a significant tightening of the widely held 2 degree target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. But is this 1.5 degree target really achievable? How realistic is it to create this brand? This article looks at the 1.5 degree target, the challenges in achieving it and why it is still important.

The 15 degree target: what is it actually?

To understand the seriousness of the 15 degree goal, we must first look at the scientific basis of climate change. Earth's climate system is very complex, with an astonishing variety of interactions and feedbacks. An increase in global temperatures can trigger a cascade of events, such as sea level rise caused by melting polar ice caps, changing weather patterns, altering ecosystems and biodiversity, and more.

The 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit global warming to well below 20 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit temperature increases to 15 degrees. These numbers seem small, but they have dramatic effects on our planetary system.

Why 15 degrees?

You may be wondering why we are focusing on the 15 degree target and not 20 degrees or even the previously widely used 20 degree target.

Studies show that reducing global warming to 15 degrees compared to 20 degrees would have significant benefits. It could significantly reduce the risk of heatwaves in most parts of the world. It could also significantly reduce the number of people exposed to extreme droughts and would have a much smaller impact on melting glaciers and sea level rise.

The effects of greater warming

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming of 20 degrees would cause significant and widespread damage to ecosystems, economies and health systems. This would cause sea levels to rise dramatically, make heat waves more frequent and severe, and impact food production worldwide.

How do we reach the 15 degree target?

Achieving the 15 degree target could be one of the biggest challenges of our time. It requires significant changes in almost all areas of society, particularly in the way we produce and consume energy.

Emissions reduction

The most important aspect of achieving the 15 degree target is the drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Most of our emissions come from the consumption of fossil fuels in the form of coal, oil and natural gas, which are used in electricity generation, heating, industry and transport.

Renewable energy

To reduce our carbon dioxide emissions, we must significantly increase the use of renewable energy, including wind energy, solar energy, hydropower and biomass. Renewable energy emits far less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels and can slow the greenhouse effect.

Energy efficiency

It is also important to increase energy efficiency. This means we need to get more out of the energy we use. Energy efficiency can be improved in many areas, from buildings to vehicles to industrial plants and household appliances.

Is the 15 degree target even achievable?

Unfortunately, the answer to this question is not that simple. Some experts believe the 15-degree target is already beyond our reach, at least on the ladder of current political will and technological advances.

The challenges

The challenges we face are enormous. To reach the 15 degree goal, we would need to start reducing our greenhouse gas emissions almost immediately and reach virtually zero by around 2040-2050. This requires a complete transition of the global energy system from fossil fuels to renewables, a drastic improvement in energy efficiency and probably the use of CO2 removal technologies.

In addition, there is also so-called "policy inertia", which means that policies are not being implemented at the required speed, especially in the most industrialized countries, which account for the largest share of global emissions.

Conclusion

The 15 degree target is an important but extremely demanding ambition. Achieving it will require significant change and unprecedented commitment from policymakers around the world. Although the challenges are immense and the journey is fraught with difficulties, science shows that there is no realistic alternative if we want to preserve the planet for future generations. At the same time, striving for this goal also presents an opportunity: it could pave the way for a more sustainable and fair world, in which renewable energy and energy efficiency are seen not only as a means of reducing emissions, but also as a driving force for economic growth and development.