The United States and China have the deadline for renewal An agreement that regulates their cooperation in science and technology . Nevertheless, they are about to agree on how Nature found out.

Research Cooperations places between the two countries. So far, two six -month extensions have been announced to conclude the negotiations. But the last period on August 27th has passed without progress.

A spokesman for the US State Department announced Nature that both countries continue to communicate.

sources that are familiar with the negotiations but are not directly involved report that despite the tensions between the two countries, the signs indicate renewal - however, the agreement is expected to be restricted to its scope. They also believe that the upcoming US presidential elections could have an impact on the delay, since cooperation with China is a politically sensitive topic that could have an impact on the votes.

"An agreement is close. You are working on the final wording," says Denis Simon, not based fellow of the Quincy Institute for Responsible StateCraft, a Think Tank for Foreign Policy in Washington, D.C.

"China is ready to renew the US China Agreement to facilitate bilateral cooperation," says Tang Li, a science and innovation policy researcher at the Fudan University in Shanghai.

a cooling of relationships

The original agreement was signed on January 31, 1979 by the then US President Jimmy Carter and the then Prime Minister of China, Deng Xiaoping, to improve diplomatic relationships. However, relationships have deteriorated since the last renewal of the agreement in 2018. This year the administration of the then US President Donald Trump A program called China Initiative to prevent foreign spies from entering in US research laboratories. In June last year, MPs from the US House of Representatives, the members of Trump's political party, the Republicans, demanded that US Foreign Minister Antony flash the agreement completely because it is a threat to national security. In the past month, both democratic and Republican MPs in the House of Representatives before , which, if it is passed, would oblige the Foreign Ministry to inform the US Congress in advance if it plans to renew or extend the agreement, justify the reasons for this and to present possible risks.

If the agreement is renewed, it is expected to reflect the cooling of relationships, whereby the cooperation in research areas is restricted to global challenges such as climate change, public health and nutritional security, says Simon. Marina Zhang, innovation researcher, who specializes in China at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, agrees and adds that the two countries may also find similarities in research on renewable energies. In competitive areas in which the United States fear that China could take advantage of US know-how-such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductor chip technology-Zhang expects that the collaborations are subject to certain restrictions.

Some observers believe that the USA would like to demand more clarity regarding access, property and sharing data that are generated during the research collaborations. In addition, one would like to ensure the personal security of the scientists who travel to China for joint projects, says Simon.

"China wants to keep the status quo," says Zhang. "But China will not fully get involved in the conditions proposed by the United States, so it will be a difficult negotiation."

elections are imminent

A spokesman for the US State Department told Nature to negotiate the authority on behalf of the US government to "modernize" the agreement and "to reflect the current state of bilateral relationships".

Deborah Seligsohn, a specialist in relationships between the USA and China at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, is pleased that the administration of US President Joe Biden has heard of the scientists who say that the agreement is important and continues the negotiations. It is crucial that both sides can limit the cooperation in the context of the agreement to areas in which they feel comfortable, she says.

sources that spoke with nature think that an announcement about the agreement will probably not come before the upcoming US presidential election in November. This is because both major political parties in the United States-despite their differences in many questions-correspond that China, which has become a global leader in science and technology, is a threat to the US pre-ruling, says Li. "The bid administration is careful, especially at this point in a contract with China," she says, because this is probably not an issue, which is probably voted for bidges, the democrats, the Democrats dignity.

Since biden no longer runs for the Presidium, it is unclear whether a new administration will change the direction of the agreement.

Trump, The Republican presidential candidate, Was China antagonistic . However, his government had renewed the 2018 Agreement. Kamala Harris, The democratic candidate and incumbent US Vice President is part of the bidet government, the The China Initiative 2022 has ended , but continued to take competitive pressure on the country through tariffs and other measures. Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and Harris' partner, has a history of cooperation with China, although he would not play a major role in foreign policy as Vice President, says Simon.

"Who knows what will happen," says Seligsohn.